Post-pandemic traffic still low, despite congestion

While the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have lessened significantly, vehicular traffic has not yet returned to normal. Experts in Central Texas have expressed concern about what will happen if and when it does.

Periods of sheltering in place and quarantining during the pandemic eliminated a large portion of traffic from roads and highways in March of 2020. While the numbers gradually increased later in 2020 and in 2021, each COVID-19 variant caused those numbers to dip, according to data collected by Charlie Henry, a data scientist with the Austin Transportation Department. Now, with greater herd immunity and no new, major variants, drivers are back on the roads — and, in many cases, facing longer commute times.

“Low traffic numbers bottomed out on April 20, 2020 and began steadily increasing until July of 2020, when cases began increasing,” Henry explained at South by Southwest. “Traffic remained at 60–80% of normal traffic through the end of 2020. From January of 2021 until now, it has continued steadily increasing, bringing us now to about 15% below normal.”

Even at 15% below normal, roadways around the greater Austin area are experiencing heavy congestion, thanks to the recent population boom. Austin ranks first among the top 50 largest metros for new residents as a percent of total population, according to data gathered by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2020. Meanwhile, nearby Hays and Comal Coun ties rank first and second among the top 10 fastest growing counties with at least 100,000 residents.

“It is complicated,” Henry said. “[Traffic in Austin is] certainly not a one-dimensional problem, and we have to take a lot more into account than just counting cars.”

While many continue to work from home as virtual or hybrid workers, they may be on the roads as often as if they commuted, Henry added.

“People may be replacing their trips,” he explained. “They may work from home, but go to hap py hour at the end of the day. Before COVID-19, a higher income meant more household trips, but now, people with all levels of income are revenge traveling — getting out of the house to make up for all the time stuck at home.”

With so many on the roads and more people migrating to Central Texas every day, the state of traffic has become a more urgent concern. To help address current and future congestion, the Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization is developing a new, regional program to accommodate travel via a variety of transportation modes.

The Transportation Demand Management program will incorporate strategies for travelers in Bastrop, Burnet, Caldwell, Hays, Travis and Williamson Counties. The program will look at methods such as carpooling, realtime information sharing through traffic and map applications, taking advantage of public transit systems, and implementing flexible work schedules to allow travelers to avoid peak traffic times.

“Having multimodal transportation is going to be very important for regional goals like affordability, population growth and job distribution,” said Anton Cox, former program manager at Movability, Central Texas’ transportation management association.

To collect public opinion on transportation in the region, CAMPO has also launched a brief survey, accessible at bit.ly/ CAMPOtransportationsurvey.

Meanwhile, transportation officials in Hays County continue to work on a study to identify a route to extend Ranch-to-Market 150 from its intersection with Ranch-to-Market 12 to US 290, west of Dripping Springs.

“The purpose of this study is to plan ahead, so that Hays County can continue to improve transportation, safety, connectivity, and mobility and provide more options for travelers,” the county stated on its website, improve150. com. “Improvements to US 290 are needed, and [the Texas Department of Transportation] has plans to study the corridor. Alternate routes and connections are needed as US 290 becomes more and more congested.”

Dripping Springs' population has more than doubled from 2015-2020, and Hays County is anticipated to grow 267% by 2045, according to figures listed on the website.

Hays County conducted an in-person open house on April 7 to address its Southwest Connection study and to provide updates. The same information will be available online via a virtual open house until April 29.